How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month.
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Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June at 50, according to survey data released Friday
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components.
Consumer products holiday season insights: Retail holiday shopping expected to be strong this year
The holiday shopping season is expected to continue to show strong nominal spending by consumers.
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Total employment increased by 261,000 jobs in October, which brought the total gain in employment this year to 4 million positions.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes.
Inflation persists as spending rebounds strongly in September
While inflation data came out slightly better than expected, the key wage inflation metric-the employment cost index-remained elevated.
FOMC preview: Policy rate moving higher as Fed may prepare to slow pace of price stability campaign
We expect the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% when it publishes its policy decision on Nov. 2.
U.S. new home sales fell 10.9% in September
The steep rise in mortgage rates has been the number one reason for the fall in demand.
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market.
Retail sales stay flat as inflation remains elevated
American consumer spending was unchanged in September, held back mainly by auto and gasoline sales as prices at the pump and auto dealers fell on the month.
Inflation remains hot, sticky and elevated, implying another supersized rate hike
Both top-line and core inflation remain hot, sticky and elevated, which implies another rate increase of 75 basis points at the Fed's November meeting.
Pending home sales fall to their lowest level since April 2020
Pending home sales in the United States fell by 2% in August, the third straight monthly decline amid a steep rise in mortgage rates.
Amid global economic turmoil, stress grips fixed-income markets
Fixed-income markets are signaling a shift in perceptions of financial stability and raising a caution flag for investors.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points and sees more increases
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the third straight increase of that size and a sign that it is continuing its aggressive push to tame inflation.
Industrial production falls for the first time since June
Industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, the first decline in three months, amid a slowdown in manufacturing and a sharp drop in electricity production.