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Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook

Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook

Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.
Navigating the complex landscape of artificial intelligence adoption

Navigating the complex landscape of artificial intelligence adoption

Artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly become a key element of business strategies. But what are the risks companies need to consider?
Bad debt tax deduction method proposed for financial institutions

Bad debt tax deduction method proposed for financial institutions

Banks and insurance companies would see a simplification of their tax reporting of credit losses under proposed regulations.
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target

Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target

We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each.
What are the benefits of managed payroll?

What are the benefits of managed payroll?

Managed payroll, also known as payroll outsourcing, can decrease risk, increase accuracy, protect sensitive data and better support your business.
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts

FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts

The Federal Reserve shifted its bias on monetary policy away from tightening to a balance of risks that favors neither rate hikes nor cuts.
The Fed”s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021

The Fed”s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021

The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% in the previous quarter.
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear

FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear

The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening.
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target

Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target

Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains.
The workers and workplaces of the future

The workers and workplaces of the future

How companies are adapting hiring practices and workforce strategies, given the shrinking U.S. labor force, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Compensation and benefits planning can help you navigate an aging workforce

Compensation and benefits planning can help you navigate an aging workforce

Considerations for structuring compensation and benefit plans that help companies minimize the costs and risks of retiring workers.
Remote workforces are complicating state tax nexus and withholding

Remote workforces are complicating state tax nexus and withholding

As businesses increase the use of remote workforces, nexus and withholding determinations can greatly complicate state tax compliance.
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter

U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter

The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%.
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises

Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises

Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be.
Global economic outlook: Rates

Global economic outlook: Rates

Central banks in developed economies have essentially ended their rate hike campaigns and are moving to shape expectations for synchronized rate cuts that should begin in the first half of 2024.
The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024

The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024

After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve has all but declared an end to that campaign.