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U.S. retail sales show surprising resilience

U.S. retail sales show surprising resilience

Total retail sales jumped 0.7% on the month, while February's number was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%.
U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky

U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 in April from 79.4, according to data released on Friday.
One year later: 5 areas of regulatory focus since 2023 bank failures

One year later: 5 areas of regulatory focus since 2023 bank failures

In the aftermath of the liquidity-related bank failures in March 2023, regulatory agencies and leaders have released numerous updates on supervisory expectations and calls for additional regulation.
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024

Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024

The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee's policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks.
Service sector continues to grow in February

Service sector continues to grow in February

The service sector continued to grow in February for the 14th straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday.
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?

How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?

Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households' stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending.
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend

January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend

The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3%
New home sales grew more slowly in January amid elevated mortgage rates

New home sales grew more slowly in January amid elevated mortgage rates

Sales of new homes grew 1.5% in January, much slower than the 7.2% increase in December, most likely because of elevated mortgage rates.
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest in a month

Initial jobless claims fall to lowest in a month

New claims fell by 12,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Feb. 17, according to the Labor Department's data on Thursday.
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook

Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook

Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target

Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target

We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each.
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts

FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts

The Federal Reserve shifted its bias on monetary policy away from tightening to a balance of risks that favors neither rate hikes nor cuts.
The Fed”s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021

The Fed”s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021

The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% in the previous quarter.
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear

FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear

The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening.
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target

Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target

Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains.
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter

U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter

The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%.