FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week.
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Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, while the core measure rose by 0.
U.S. existing home sales plunged to their lowest level since 2010
In October, sales of existing homes dropped to 3.79 million, marking the lowest point since 2010, the National Realtor Association reported on Tuesday.
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted.
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields.
Fed’s key wage inflation metric tops forecast
The employment cost index for the third quarter showed that labor costs rose 1.1% higher than the forecast of 1.0% and were higher than the pre-pandemic average
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
Friday's data on spending and income, together with recent data on gross domestic product, have pointed to a booming economy that should push back any speculation for an imminent recession.
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
The idea that the global economy can be organized around another currency seems out of place given the dollar's ascendancy over the past 10 years during a time of uncertainty.
Resilient U.S. economy grows 4.9% in third quarter
A resilient American economy continued to defy expectations by growing at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter because of one-time factors inside the consumption channel and because of sustained gains in U.S. labor dynamics and modest real income gains.
Existing home sales fall to the lowest level since 2010
Demand for existing homes has plunged in six out of seven months since February, falling to 3.96 million in September.
Retail sales top forecasts as American consumers stay resilient
Total sales rose by 0.7% on the month, following an upward revision to 0.8% for August, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday.
Consumer sentiment hits 5-month low amid elevated inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment in October dropped to the lowest since May because of the rebound in inflation expectations.
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
According to our analysis of revised BEA data, consumers are on a strong footing, with between $400 billion and $1.3 trillion in excess savings that they can draw upon as the economy moves back toward price stability amid tightening financial conditions.
The UAW strike’s potential impact on U.S. auto sector
This work stoppage comes at a time when many companies are already facing margin compression. Investments in automation and other technologies can help businesses weather these challenges.
The looming government shutdown’s potential impact on manufacturers
A shutdown would slow imports and exports, delay compliance and permitting processes and affect government funding to support midsize manufacturers.