What would happen if the government defaults on its debt?
Policy brinksmanship over lifting the debt ceiling and the threat of default it brings is increasing the cost of doing business and carries far more risk than is commonly acknowledged.
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U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year.
Retail sales post strong gains in January, though it may not last
Sales increased by 3.0% on the month and by 2.3% if automobiles are excluded, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt.
4 areas of focus for financial institutions in early 2023
Despite the lift in financial institutions" net interest margins from unprecedented rate hikes, the headwinds facing the industry through declining macroeconomic conditions are creating unique downside risks for the nation’s banking system.
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
The central bank hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%, its eighth straight increase, though lower than the recent hikes.
Job openings rise again in December, adding to pressure on the Fed
The number of job vacancies jumped to 11 million in December from 10.4 million.
Labor costs slow, setting the stage for smaller Fed rate hike
The index showed that labor cost growth fell to 1.0% on a quarterly basis, and to 5.1% on a year-ago basis for all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Cost Index released on Tuesday.
Shipping costs from China plunge, helping ease inflation
Shipping costs from Shanghai to American seaports reached a peak last January, decelerated during the first half of the year and have plunged since June.
U.S. retail sales and producer inflation fall as spending weakens
Retail sales and producer inflation data came in lower than expected in December, giving the Federal Reserve more reasons to begin to slow down its rate hikes.
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
Top-line inflation declined by 0.1% on the month in December and increased by 6.5% on an annual basis.
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions.
Retail sales fall more than expected as spending and inflation cool
Retail sales in November posted the sharpest decline of the year, falling by 0.6% as shoppers pulled back from holiday spending.
FOMC decision: Fed lifts policy rate to range of 4.25% to 4.5%
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted its policy rate by 50 basis points and laid the groundwork for an eventual pause in interest rate increases early next year, even as it indicated it intends to continue lifting rates into a slowdown.
What do the latest job numbers say about the health care sector?
According to the latest nonfarm payroll report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, health care added 44,700 jobs, exceeding our earlier estimate of 40,000.
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row.