Premature calls for the Fed to pause its campaign to tame inflation should be politely dismissed given the 0.1% increase in top-line inflation in August.
personal income and spending in July signaled a gradual rebound of the economy in the third quarter after six months of declines in gross domestic product.
Commodity, oil, and gasoline prices declined noticeably in July, driving the pace of top-line inflation lower even as core inflation continued to increase at a torrid pace.
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps.
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points.
Wholesale gasoline futures imply that the average price per gallon of gas, which stands at $4.44, will most likely fall below $4 per gallon by the end of the summer.
New filings for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week to an eight-month high of 251,000, continuing to show signs of increases in layoffs amid an economic slowdown.