Just as inflation appeared to be getting under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households' stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending.
The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3%
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.