Initial jobless claims fall to lowest in a month
New claims fell by 12,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Feb. 17, according to the Labor Department's data on Thursday.
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Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each.
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Reserve shifted its bias on monetary policy away from tightening to a balance of risks that favors neither rate hikes nor cuts.
The Fed”s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021
The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% in the previous quarter.
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening.
Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains.
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%.
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises
Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be.
Global economic outlook: Rates
Central banks in developed economies have essentially ended their rate hike campaigns and are moving to shape expectations for synchronized rate cuts that should begin in the first half of 2024.
The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve has all but declared an end to that campaign.
Construction employment: Kick-starting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Growth rates in construction employment strongly support the emerging consensus around an economic soft landing.
Global economic outlook: Labor
Labor markets appear to be stabilizing after the upheavals in working arrangements and preferences brought on by the pandemic.
Global economic outlook: Income
China's per capita income grew at an astounding rate from 2000 to 2010, and similar growth is happening in India.
Global economic outlook: Inflation
The world's economies are nearing price stability.
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%.