FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening.
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Spending remains strong as a key inflation gauge declines toward Fed’s target
Inflation dynamics to close out last year strongly point to a near-term return to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target amid a solid labor market, strong spending and real income gains.
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%.
Initial jobless claims and housing starts post upside surprises
Filings for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in 16 months, a testament for how resilient the labor market continues to be.
Global economic outlook: Rates
Central banks in developed economies have essentially ended their rate hike campaigns and are moving to shape expectations for synchronized rate cuts that should begin in the first half of 2024.
The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve has all but declared an end to that campaign.
Construction employment: Kick-starting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Growth rates in construction employment strongly support the emerging consensus around an economic soft landing.
Global economic outlook: Labor
Labor markets appear to be stabilizing after the upheavals in working arrangements and preferences brought on by the pandemic.
Global economic outlook: Income
China's per capita income grew at an astounding rate from 2000 to 2010, and similar growth is happening in India.
Global economic outlook: Inflation
The world's economies are nearing price stability.
Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%.
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
November had a 0.4% increase in nominal income and spending, while inflation-adjusted spending advanced at a 0.3% pace, according to Commerce Department data on Friday.
U.S. November Consumer Price Index: Inflation continues to abate
Inflation continued to abate in November as energy prices declined by 2.3% and gasoline prices dropped by 6%, resulting in a 0.1% monthly advance in the CPI.
Initial jobless claims remain resilient
Initial jobless claims inched up slightly to 220,000 last week, remaining within the pre-pandemic level, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week.
Inflation is cooling, but key costs pose a challenge for food and beverage companies
Middle market food and beverage companies developing growth strategies will continue to navigate a challenging cost environment.