Rate normalization and the return of risk
Conditions are ripe for the yield curve to continue to normalize as the long end moves to a range between 4% and 4.25%.
Resources
Search Results
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
November had a 0.4% increase in nominal income and spending, while inflation-adjusted spending advanced at a 0.3% pace, according to Commerce Department data on Friday.
U.S. November Consumer Price Index: Inflation continues to abate
Inflation continued to abate in November as energy prices declined by 2.3% and gasoline prices dropped by 6%, resulting in a 0.1% monthly advance in the CPI.
Initial jobless claims remain resilient
Initial jobless claims inched up slightly to 220,000 last week, remaining within the pre-pandemic level, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week.
Inflation is cooling, but key costs pose a challenge for food and beverage companies
Middle market food and beverage companies developing growth strategies will continue to navigate a challenging cost environment.
Inflation slows again, pointing to another rate pause
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, was unchanged on the month, while the core measure rose by 0.
U.S. existing home sales plunged to their lowest level since 2010
In October, sales of existing homes dropped to 3.79 million, marking the lowest point since 2010, the National Realtor Association reported on Tuesday.
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted.
U.S. October jobs report: Moderation in hiring as wage gains outpace inflation
The economy added 150,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate at 3.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan repayments present a modest drag on growth
The restarting of student loan repayments will not cause a large drag on overall spending or economic growth in the final quarter of the year.
FOMC decision: Extended pause as Fed waits for economy and inflation to ease further
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% to 5.5% at its November policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the recent backup in Treasury yields.
Fed’s key wage inflation metric tops forecast
The employment cost index for the third quarter showed that labor costs rose 1.1% higher than the forecast of 1.0% and were higher than the pre-pandemic average
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
Friday's data on spending and income, together with recent data on gross domestic product, have pointed to a booming economy that should push back any speculation for an imminent recession.
Dollar ascendant? Why the dollar’s dominance will not fade.
The idea that the global economy can be organized around another currency seems out of place given the dollar's ascendancy over the past 10 years during a time of uncertainty.
Resilient U.S. economy grows 4.9% in third quarter
A resilient American economy continued to defy expectations by growing at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter because of one-time factors inside the consumption channel and because of sustained gains in U.S. labor dynamics and modest real income gains.