Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The inflation shock of the past three years is abating. One reason is that expectations of future inflation continue to remain remarkably well anchored.
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The price of eggs and the effect on public sentiment
With the economy growing at a healthy rate over the past year, one would think that Americans would be celebrating a boom.
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be getting under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks.
Global economic outlook: Rates
Central banks in developed economies have essentially ended their rate hike campaigns and are moving to shape expectations for synchronized rate cuts that should begin in the first half of 2024.
The logic of a Fed policy pause and then rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve has all but declared an end to that campaign.
Construction employment: Kick-starting the reindustrialization of the American economy
Growth rates in construction employment strongly support the emerging consensus around an economic soft landing.
Global economic outlook: Labor
Labor markets appear to be stabilizing after the upheavals in working arrangements and preferences brought on by the pandemic.
Global economic outlook: Income
China's per capita income grew at an astounding rate from 2000 to 2010, and similar growth is happening in India.
Global economic outlook: Inflation
The world's economies are nearing price stability.
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan repayments present a modest drag on growth
The restarting of student loan repayments will not cause a large drag on overall spending or economic growth in the final quarter of the year.
The 3 pillars of artificial intelligence: How AI will reshape business and the economy
Understanding what AI can bring to businesses is critical. What we call the three pillars of artificial intelligence will have profound implications for businesses and the economy.
Paycheck Protection Program: Speed came at a price
The Paycheck Protection Program had a clear impact on preserving jobs among small and midsize businesses. But it came at a steep cost, both in dollar terms and in reach.
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway.